Choosing the next
almond market
Start with Germany for direct buyer research. Consider the Netherlands when the opportunity is a distributor serving several markets.
The decision
Where should an almond ingredient supplier spend its first buyer-research effort?
A supplier of conventional shelled sweet almonds has three candidate markets: Germany, France and the Netherlands. The immediate decision is where to investigate commercial fit, before committing to market entry.
Working recommendation
Investigate Germany first
Germany offers the largest import scale of these three markets. Start with ingredient importers and industrial buyers, then test whether the supplier can meet their requirements.
What could change this: specifications, delivered cost, order sizes, certifications or existing buyer access.
A conditional research priority, not a forecast of sales or profit. The route choice changes the commercial assumption; the evidence below stays the same.
The evidence
Germany offers scale, rather than sustained fast growth
Germany imported 116.4k tonnes in 2025, more than twice either comparison market. But its annualised volume growth from 2021 to 2025 was just 0.3%, versus 2.2% for France and 1.9% for the Netherlands. The 2025 rebound follows several weaker years.
View exact import volumes
| Year | Germany | France | Netherlands |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 114,976.5 | 47,109.8 | 48,233.5 |
| 2022 | 102,193.8 | 40,388.3 | 47,015.9 |
| 2023 | 98,251.4 | 42,046.2 | 45,666.8 |
| 2024 | 94,814.9 | 49,554.7 | 48,544.6 |
| 2025 | 116,381.9 | 51,365.4 | 52,101.3 |
A trading gateway is a different kind of opportunity
Dutch exports of the same product equalled 73.6% of its import volume in 2025. The ratios were 18.0% for Germany and 3.0% for France. Together with CBI’s description of the Dutch gateway, this supports examining the Netherlands as a distribution route.
View exact trade flows
| Market | Imports (t) | Exports (t) | Exports/imports |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 116,381.9 | 20,955.5 | 18.0% |
| France | 51,365.4 | 1,558.3 | 3.0% |
| Netherlands | 52,101.3 | 38,324.9 | 73.6% |
This is an export/import ratio, not a measured re-export share or a measure of consumption. Stocks, domestic production and products processed into other categories affect the interpretation.
Higher spending does not mean equally higher demand
German import spending rose 58.4% from 2024 to 2025, while volume rose 22.7%. Average import unit value increased 29.0%. Spending outpaced volumes in all three markets.
View growth calculations
| Market | Volume | Spending | Unit value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 22.7% | 58.4% | 29.0% |
| France | 3.7% | 24.9% | 20.5% |
| Netherlands | 7.3% | 39.9% | 30.3% |
Average unit value reflects prices and product mix. It is neither a retail price nor evidence of a pure price effect.
Trading relationships add another question
The largest reported partner supplied 48.0% of Germany’s 2025 import volume (US), 55.8% of France’s (Spain) and 84.9% of the Netherlands’ (US).
These are country shares, not individual supplier-company shares. For extra-EU imports, the partner identifies origin; for intra-EU imports, it identifies consignment. Concentration does not tell us whether buyers want a new supplier.
What changes the decision
The base case assumes conventional almonds, with no special certification, price advantage or existing buyer relationships. Commercial fit can outweigh national scale.
- Access to a European distributor
- The Netherlands may move first if a credible partner can reach buyers across several markets.
- A differentiated product or a French buyer relationship
- France may deserve priority despite its smaller import volume.
- A mismatch with German buyer requirements
- Reconsider the priority if specifications, order sizes or certifications exceed the supplier’s capabilities.
These are decision scenarios, not measured commercial outcomes. There is no numerical market-attractiveness score.
The next practical test
Use the German priority to structure a small round of buyer research. Compare one French buyer segment and one Dutch distributor route using the same questions.
This test is proposed. No buyer interviews, market entry or sales outcomes have been claimed.
Sources and method
Eurostat’s product-level trade data provides the measurements. CBI provides industry context. This is an independent research exercise, developed with AI assistance for data preparation, analysis and implementation.
- Eurostat Comext DS-045409Annual import/export value and net mass; 2025 trading partners.
- Eurostat trade definitionsOrigin versus consignment, border values, quantities and revisions.
- CBI: the European almond marketIndustry context, updated December 2025. Some totals cover a broader almond scope.
Scope, calculations and validation
- Product
- CN 08021290: fresh or dried shelled sweet almonds, excluding bitter almonds. Roasted snacks, almond drinks and other processed derivatives are outside the product scope.
- Window
- 2021–2025, with 2020 retained in the supporting extract. Partial 2026 figures excluded. Data updated 15 September 2026; retrieved 6 October 2026.
- Calculations
- Quantity in 100 kg divided by 10 gives tonnes. Unit value is euros divided by kilograms. Annualised growth uses four intervals between 2021 and 2025. Year-on-year changes compare 2025 with 2024.
- Checks
- 72 annual and 144 monthly observations. All twelve 2025 months reconcile with annual totals. Detailed partner quantities reconcile with world totals after excluding overlapping aggregates. No observation flags were returned.
- Limits
- Trade figures can be revised. They do not establish retail demand, attainable share, profitability or a causal reason for growth. Supplier origin, costs, capacity and buyer access remain unknown.