An illustrative cafe, not a market estimate
A busy café can still
lose money.
In our starting example, 80 orders a day leave a monthly shortfall of EUR 1,600. The cafe needs about 93 orders a day just to cover its costs.
A full-looking room is not a profit calculation. What matters is how much each order leaves after variable costs, and how many times that contribution arrives.
About 93 orders a day cover the bills.
Average daily order target across the month, rounded up. An order may include several products.
Include rent, fixed staffing, owner pay and other fixed operating costs.
Average order revenue minus its variable costs, excluding VAT.
One calculation. A better first question.
Can the location reliably deliver that many orders at that contribution, without needing more staff? That is more useful than asking whether the street looks busy.
The starting EUR 12,000 monthly cost is invented: EUR 2,000 rent, EUR 5,000 fixed staffing, EUR 3,000 owner pay allowance and EUR 2,000 other fixed costs. These are not Belgian wage or rent benchmarks.
Another EUR 1,000 of rent has a sales target.
But a higher-rent site might attract more orders or a better order mix. The calculation tells you what that advantage must cover; it does not tell you whether the advantage exists.
The staffing trap.
That extra staffing cost is a separate sensitivity, not included in the main result. Extra trading days may also change staffing and utilities. Recalculate costs when the operating plan changes.
Assumptions, source and what this cannot tell you
Monthly modeled surplus = average daily orders × trading days × contribution per order − monthly fixed costs. Daily break-even target = fixed costs ÷ contribution per order ÷ trading days. The average target can be fractional; the displayed order target rounds up.
Defaults are invented. Costs and revenue exclude VAT. Product mix, average contribution, and fixed costs are constant within each scenario. Include wastage, packaging, payment fees and variable labor in variable costs; count each cost only once. Owner pay is an explicit economic allowance, not a claim about its legal accounting treatment.
This is an operating-cost illustration, not a cash-flow forecast or full investment appraisal. Income tax, financing costs, startup investment and recovery of capital are outside the model. Other fixed operating costs should include relevant depreciation. Demand, capacity, peaks, repeat visits and real staffing thresholds require separate evidence. Orders are not unique customers.
Accounting reference: OpenStax: calculating break-even. Original scenario, calculations and visual; source checked October 2026.
Next question: how many sales can a price rise afford to lose?