Data with SinaMarket signals / 01

Belgium / Household spending / 2022–2024

More money on food.
Not necessarily more food.

Food spending rose 10.2%. That is a bigger bill, not proof of a bigger appetite.

Statbel reports higher average household spending on food and non-alcoholic drinks between 2022 and 2024. Yet their share of household expenditure barely moved: 13.9% to 14.0%.

Two facts. One unanswered question.

Average household food spending

+10.2%

Nominal change, 2022–2024

2022 spending index: 100

2024 spending index: 110.2 · common 0–120 scale

Share of household expenditure

13.9% → 14.0%

2022 · full bar = all household expenditure

2024 · full bar = all household expenditure

Neither comparison counts the food in the basket. Prices, quantities and the mix of products can all change what households spend.

Measured survey results. Source: Statbel Household Budget Survey, released September 2025. These are survey averages, not a panel tracking identical households.

Hypothetical mechanism / not Belgian inflation estimates

The same bigger bill can hide three different baskets.

For a simplified, unchanged product basket, spending equals price × quantity. Hold spending growth at 10.2%, and change only the assumed price increase:

Prices rise 5%Quantity +5.0%More purchased
Prices rise 10.2%Quantity unchangedSame amount purchased
Prices rise 15%Quantity −4.2%Less purchased

Scenarios demonstrate ambiguity. They do not measure Belgian food quantities, observed price changes or price elasticity.

Before you call it market growth, ask what grew.

A food brand considering more capacity needs to distinguish higher sales value from more products sold. A bigger spending number alone does not answer the capacity question.

Start with matched sales-value and volume evidence for the same category and period. Then examine product mix, population and channel changes. Even higher volume does not by itself identify why people bought more.

For Belgium, this survey gives us the spending signal. It does not settle the quantity question. That is the boundary of this story, not a missing number to invent.

Evidence, calculation and limitations
Reported national survey summary
Measure20222024
Food and non-alcoholic drinks share13.9%14.0%
Spending index, 2022 = 100100110.2

Spending growth is Statbel's published nominal 10.2% figure; index conversion is our calculation. Source checked October 2026. About 5,500 Belgian households participated in the 2024 survey. Restaurant and accommodation spending is a separate category.

Scenario quantity change = 1.102 ÷ (1 + assumed price change) − 1. All scenario percentages refer to the whole 2022–2024 interval, not annual rates. It is a simplified one-product or fixed-composition illustration, not a deflation of the survey. Actual baskets have many changing products and qualities; no compatible price series or quantity estimate is presented here.

We do not infer household demand, total food-market size, café traffic, causation or company profitability from these averages. The budget-share comparison does not prove constant quantities. Source and method are linked above; no external graphics or prose have been reproduced.

Related: how many sales can a price rise afford to lose?